Imran Khan takes on Pakistan's powerful military establishment
Allies break from embattled former PM in aftermath of May 9 violence
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan -- Pakistan's colonial garrison city of Rawalpindi is dotted with military installations and army-backed businesses enmeshed in civilian life.
Next to the army's sprawling GHQ compound, the Blue Lagoon hosts weddings, runs a restaurant serving everything from "sizzling BBQ" to Chinese food, and offers swimming lessons. Proceeds, the army says, go to the families of shaheeds (martyrs) and wounded veterans.
On the road to the Chaklala Garrison, home to the country's nuclear and missile oversight agency, billboards advertise academies that promise to help young Pakistanis ace the armed forces entrance test.
In Rawalpindi, it is hard to forget that the city is considered Pakistan's fulcrum of power. And the military establishment that looms so large is now locked in a showdown with ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, who claims it is trying to crush his Pakistan Tehreek-e-insaf (PTI) party by having leaders arrested and pressuring them to quit. The generally taciturn army has in recent weeks slammed the PTI chairman for making "highly irresponsible and baseless allegations."
Besides commanding over 600,000 troops, Pakistan's military has directly ruled the country for several long periods since independence in 1947. At other times, it has engaged in "political engineering." Former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, in a retirement speech late last year, even spoke of "constant meddling by the army in politics for the last 70 years."
Bajwa went on to say that the military had changed its ways and was staying out of politics. But that did not placate Khan and his supporters, who blame the brass for his downfall in a no-confidence vote in April 2022 and want early elections.
The tensions boiled over on May 9, when Khan was arrested over some of the many corruption allegations he faces, all of which he denies. In response, his supporters smashed symbols and monuments related to the army, breached gates at GHQ in Rawalpindi, and torched the home of a top commander in Lahore, in the same military heartland of Punjab province.
While Khan's arrest sparked protests in other parts of the country as well, the events in Punjab caught analysts' attention in particular.
Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, associate professor of political economy at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, told Nikkei Asia that resentment toward the army has been festering outside Punjab for years, from Balochistan to tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. But now "there is a growing perception, even in its historically most captive regions like Punjab, that the army oversteps its boundaries in the name of national security," Akhtar said. "Imran [Khan] might have embodied that a little bit in recent times ... but this has been a growing perception."
Khan's followers lashed out at the military after months of hearing their leader lob veiled and not-so-veiled accusations at an institution once believed to have backed him.
Initially, after Khan's removal from office, he rallied public support with unsubstantiated claims that he was the victim of a U.S.-backed conspiracy. But he eventually pointed the finger at Bajwa, calling him a "super king," while labeling the ruling establishment including replacement Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif a "band of crooks."
Days before he was detained, Khan, who survived a shooting in November, also accused a senior commander from the military's spy agency of trying to kill him twice. Then, after he was freed by the courts, Khan claimed it was current army chief Syed Asim Munir who was behind his arrest.
This past weekend, Khan pointedly told Reuters that "it is completely the establishment" that is cracking down on him and his party. "Establishment obviously means the military establishment."
Khan has not offered proof of his explosive claims. In a statement on May 8, the military's media wing pushed back on the accusation against the spy chief, issuing a statement: "Chairman PTI has leveled highly irresponsible and baseless allegations against a serving senior military officer without any evidence. These fabricated and malicious allegations are extremely unfortunate, deplorable and unacceptable."
The statement said that this had been a pattern over the past year, "wherein military and intelligence agencies officials are targeted with insinuations and sensational propaganda for the furtherance of political objectives."
In the aftermath of the May 9 violence, Munir said, "No one will be allowed to disrespect our martyrs and their monuments," according to local media.
When Khan and his allies take aim at the military, they are challenging an institution deeply embedded in the fabric of Pakistani society. The military continues to command the lion's share of the national budget -- a point some have called into question, considering the country's dire economic crisis of high inflation and shrinking foreign reserves.
Beyond politics, the military's commercial interests are attributed to a system inherited from the British Indian Army, in which retired soldiers were allotted land to maintain or reward their loyalty. Under successive martial law regimes, the army's economic footprint grew into real estate and myriad other fields.
The Frontier Works Organization, the army's civil engineering and construction firm, plays a significant role in building infrastructure under the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The army's freight company, National Logistics Cell, handles 55% of crude oil transportation, according to its website.
Pakistan's space and weather agency, its water and power development authority, and its telecommunications watchdog are all helmed by retired army officers. The military-backed Fauji Foundation and Army Welfare Trust run businesses ranging from banking to cement to farming.
The past few weeks have shown that the military establishment is not taking the threat from Khan lightly.
Khan's PTI claims thousands of its supporters have been rounded up without warrants, including party leaders and sympathetic journalists. A number of individuals suspected of involvement in the May 9 riots have reportedly been handed over for trial in a secretive military court, for attacking army institutions. Amid the pressure, numerous senior deputies have publicly broken away from Khan and condemned the May 9 violence, ostensibly to avoid jail.
One of the latest prominent defectors was Pervez Khattak, defense minister in Khan's government, who announced he was quitting the party late last Thursday. Usman Buzdar, a PTI former chief minister of Punjab, quit on Friday. "The military installations which were targeted were properties of the state of Pakistan and I believe we should avoid such incidents," Buzdar was quoted as saying.
Khan himself admitted to U.S. public broadcaster PBS last week that the detentions and defections had left him "pretty isolated," and warned of "the end of our democracy."
Government officials have spoken of a potential ban on the PTI, while rumors swirl about the creation of a new PTI "minus Khan."
The Islamist populist Khan, of course, still has millions of fans across the country, some of whom surely belong to the vast army itself. A Gallup Pakistan poll earlier this year found 61% of respondents still viewed Khan positively, while 62% blamed the ruling coalition for the economic woes pushing the country toward the verge of bankruptcy.
But experts say the military has ways of dealing with renegade service members and civilians alike. "Use of the draconian Army Act will allow the military high command to impose its will on civilian dissidents as well as those of its own officers and jawans(infantry) who are enamored by Imran Khan or lean toward more extreme Islamist ideology," said Shuja Nawaz, distinguished fellow and founding director of the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center in Washington, referring to legislation that enables military trials for service members and some civilians.
"In recent years, withholding of pensions and benefits has been deployed as a powerful tool" against some retired military dissidents as well, he added.
The military and its civilian political allies have responded to the power struggle by organizing a full-blown PR campaign. This includes pro-army rallies and events commemorating soldiers' sacrifices. In Punjab, where the police have been instrumental in the clampdown, a tweet from the department's official account on May 13 said hundreds of promotions were in the works. Banners and billboards hailing the army chief and other officials have sprung up across cities.
The political crisis gripping Pakistan is anything but predictable. But with Khan seemingly on the ropes, many expect the military will maintain its position of strength, and even its appeal as a career option in precarious times.
Young men and women are still drawn to army perks such as free housing, a stable salary, an undergraduate degree and a pension. These are big considerations, noted one resident of the army's Rawalpindi heartland, "especially in times when Pakistan's economy is on the brink of default and there is massive unemployment."